Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站
A | As Massoud walked down a Kabul street one cold Sunday morning, looking for a day job to feed his family, pickup trucks full of armed Taliban members stopped in front of him. He told CBS News the men aimed their AK-47s at him, he was handcuffed, blindfolded and taken to an office of the Taliban's General Directorate of Intelligence.For more than a month, Massoud's family had no idea where he was. They searched everywhere, including hospitals, until they arrived at the Taliban's intelligence department. "After six weeks of searching, they found me at the Taliban's 040 intelligence department," Massoud told CBS News in a phone interview. He said during the first 15 days of his imprisonment, he was "beaten, struck with electric shock sticks, electrocuted, waterboarded and hanged upside down."Taliban members ride in a pickup truck during a celebration of the first anniversary of the Taliban's return to power, August 15, 2022, in Kabul, Afghanistan. Nava Jamshidi/Getty His crime? Massoud worked for the U.S. military as an interpreter from 2011 to 2013, including a year spent working with U.S. Navy SEALs. (CBS News is not using the real name of Massoud or the other former interpreter interviewed for this story to protect them from possible retaliation.)
"Don't want to see that horror again"
Massoud said that during interrogations, Taliban intelligence officers told him that, "with my help, the Americans have killed our people, and that I was still spying for the Americans.""I told them, 'You have announced a general amnesty,'" Massoud told CBS News, but he was informed by the Taliban interrogators, "there is no amnesty for you people."
Massoud was finally released by the Taliban after more than three months of imprisonment, after his brothers signed two separate guarantees promising the Taliban they would bring him back to the intelligence agency if ever asked to do so. CBS News has seen the letters and other documents his family filed with Taliban officials while he was imprisoned."They can find me anytime they wish and put me back in the prison," he told CBS News. "I just don't want to see that horror again."
"Still in danger"
U.S. Army Sgt. Jordan David Johnson, who has since been honorably discharged, was Massoud's direct supervisor in Helmand province and has written to members of the U.S. Congress supporting his former Afghan colleague's application for a U.S. visa, but to no avail. "Every time I hear from Massoud I feel guilty, because he is still in danger," Johnson told CBS News. "We told them that, 'You help us, and we will help you.' But now we are not, and that is wrong."U.S. Army Sgt. Jordan David Johnson (right), who has since been honorably discharged, is seen during his deployment in Afghanistan's Helmand province, with his Afghan interpreter Massoud (top left) and others. Photo courtesy of Jordan David Johnson In a September 2022 letter to lawmakers, Johnson said he trusted Massoud then, "and I am proud to call him a friend today," adding that he did not believe the Afghan "poses a national security threat to the United States of America."
"They will come after me and my family"
Omar, 32, told CBS News that he worked with the U.S. military from 2008 until 2012 and was deployed alongside U.S. troops in eastern Paktia province. From 2012 until Afghanistan fell back into the Taliban's hands in August 2021, he worked on various projects with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) at the U.S. Embassy in Kabul. He was threatened many times for working with the U.S. and was injured in what he believes was an assassination attempt in 2014, after he filed for a U.S. visa.
Afghan women who served with Americans fight for U.S. residency 2 years after Taliban takeover03:05Despite the threats, which he continued reporting to his supervisors at the embassy, Omar was informed that his U.S. Special Immigration Visa, or SIV, application had been rejected because documents he submitted previously had been deemed fraudulent. He believes it's because he failed a polygraph administered by U.S. officials eight years earlier, and that the process was unfair. "They intentionally make you a criminal," he told CBS News. "You are only allowed to answer their questions with yes and no, and they don't give you a chance to explain." Omar filed an appeal against the rejection of his application in mid-June and is waiting for a response. He urged the U.S. government to "seriously look into our cases and take us into safety," adding that if it doesn't happen, "they will come after me and my family one day."
"Absurd that it takes so long"
During the 20-year war that followed the 2001 U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, thousands of Afghans served as interpreters and translators, working shoulder to shoulder with U.S. troops and diplomats, risking their lives serving on the battlefield and communicating with locals.
These interpreters were essential to bridge the language barrier, but also to provide cultural context, gather intelligence, negotiate with tribal elders and build trust with local communities. Massoud and Omar both applied for SIVs under a program created by the U.S. Congress in 2006 to offer legal pathways to the United States for Iraqis and Afghans who helped during the U.S. military operations in those countries. But the bureaucracy of the SIV application process has left many applicants frustrated, with little faith in the program.Massoud said his application was rejected due to a lack of documentation from his supervisors, despite Johnson trying to help. He said he submitted the requested documents and has waited for more than 320 days with no update from the U.S. government. "Every time Massoud submits all his documents and we think, 'now we are waiting for his visa to be approved,' then Massoud would contact me again saying, 'I need this and this document, because they keep changing the requirements,'" Johnson said.
The backlog, and work to improve a "vital program"
"We have surged resources to this vital program, significantly increasing the number of staff dedicated to it. We have reviewed every stage of the multiple step application process to streamline it wherever possible, consistent with U.S. law, and continue to look for areas to improve," a State Department spokesperson told CBS News.The official said the steps had enabled the State Department to issue "nearly 34,000 SIVs to principal applicants and their eligible family members" from the beginning of the Biden administration until August 1, 2023.
As of the end of March, State Department figures show about 9,800 principal SIV applicants had cleared a major hurdle in the process, securing Chief Of Mission (COM) approval. Those individuals are "awaiting further processing and their eventual visa interview before being issued an SIV," the spokesperson said, adding: "We are working to process these cases as quickly as possible."The State Department's figures show that another 69,000 principal applicants were undergoing the review process, and the spokesperson told CBS News that, historically, about half of the applications who reach that stage of the process do not end up qualifying for an SIV.According to the figures, 3,241 Afghan applicants were "deemed unqualified to receive COM approval or had the approval revoked during the second quarter" of 2023."The Department will continue to ensure Afghan SIV applications are processed as quickly as possible in accordance with the statutorily required program parameters and national security requirements," the spokesman told CBS News. A report issued this week by a State Department inspector general said, meanwhile, that according to the department's own estimation, as of April 2023, a total of "more than 840,000 principal and derivative SIV applicants remained in Afghanistan."CBS News' Tucker Reals and Paulina Smolinski contributed to this report.
。 While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。
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